Rheumatologist’s expertise in estimating risk of developing rheumatoid arthritis in patients with clinically suspect arthralgia: what is the value?
Authors' conclusion
Rheumatologists' clinical expertise is inaccurate in assessing the risk of developing RA in patients with CSA, due to risk overestimation.
Study context
- Population
- Clinically suspect arthralgia (CSA) patients from the Leiden CSA cohort and placebo arm of the TREAT EARLIER trial
- Participants
- 501 patients
- Comparison
- Rheumatologists' clinical expertise rheumatoid arthritis (RA)-risk estimation vs EULAR/ACR risk stratification criteria
- Outcome
- RA development (2010 criteria); discrimination compared
- Follow-up
- Within 1 year
Methodological detailsprospective cohort data (Leiden CSA cohort and placebo arm of the TREAT EARLIER trial)
- Prospective cohort data (Leiden CSA cohort and placebo arm of the TREAT EARLIER trial)
Performance
As reported in the abstract
Discrimination of RA development (2010 criteria) within 1 year (AUC)
| Test or model | Value | AUC |
|---|---|---|
| Rheumatologists' expertise | mean 5 (SD 1.6) 0-10 scale | |
| EULAR/ACR criteria | 0.91 (95% CI 0.87 to 0.95) |
Value
Rheumatologists' expertisemean 5 (SD 1.6) 0-10 scale
EULAR/ACR criteria— not stated in the abstract
AUC
Rheumatologists' expertise— not stated in the abstract
EULAR/ACR criteria0.91 (95% CI 0.87 to 0.95)
- Rheumatologists' expertise: AUC (patients who did or did not develop RA moderately differentiated)
- 0.64 (95% CI 0.55 to 0.73)
Original publication
Rheumatologist’s expertise in estimating risk of developing rheumatoid arthritis in patients with clinically suspect arthralgia: what is the value? RMD Open. Published 20 February 2026. doi:10.
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