Lupus & antiphospholipid syndrome
Prognostic risk score for end-stage kidney disease in Latin American lupus nephritis: Integrating clinical and histological data
Authors' conclusion
We developed a simple yet robust risk score for predicting ESKD in Latin American patients with LN, integrating key clinical and histopathological factors.
Study context
- Population
- Adults (≥18 years) with biopsy-proven lupus nephritis (LN), Hospital San Vicente Fundación (Medellín, Colombia), January 2011–May 2025
- Participants
- 433 adults
- Exposure
- Risk categories of a weighted end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) risk score: low vs moderate vs high
- Lown = 80reference
- Moderaten = 215
- Highn = 138
- Outcome
- ESKD (eGFR <15 mL/min/1.73 m² for ≥3 months, dialysis >3 months, or kidney transplantation)
Methodological detailssingle-centre, prognostic risk score development, multivariable Cox regression
- Single-centre
- Prognostic risk score development
- Multivariable Cox regression
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
ESKD incidence by risk category
P < 0.001
- Harrell's C-index
- 0.83
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
Progression to ESKD, whole cohort · median of 3 months post-biopsy
- Patients progressing to ESKD (Eighty-eight patients)
- 20.3%
Independent predictors of ESKD (multivariable Cox regression)
- Hypertension, HR
- 1.73
- Baseline eGFR <60 mL/min/1.73 m², HR
- 4.40
- Proliferative LN, HR
- 4.03
- mNIH activity index ≥7, HR
- 1.56
- Chronicity index ≥3, HR
- 2.24
Model discrimination
- Harrell's C-index
- 0.83
Original publication
Prognostic risk score for end-stage kidney disease in Latin American lupus nephritis: Integrating clinical and histological data. Lupus. Published 8 April 2026. doi:10.
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