Lupus & antiphospholipid syndrome
Prediction model for renal outcomes in Latin American Mestizo patients with pure proliferative lupus nephritis
Authors' conclusion
Based on two readily available features at the time of diagnosis, the proposed model effectively stratifies Latin American mestizo patients with pure proliferative LN (ISN/RPS class III or IV) into three risk categories for poor renal outcome.
Study context
- Population
- Adult mestizo patients with incident, biopsy-proven pure proliferative lupus nephritis (LN) (ISN/RPS class III or IV), nine Chilean hospitals; external validation in Mexican patients93 Mexican validation patients
- Participants
- 290 patients
- Exposure
- Risk categories by baseline eGFR <30 mL/min/m² and chronicity index >2
- Outcome
- Composite of:
- Stage IV/V CKD
- Dialysis
- Death
Methodological detailsprognostic model development and validation, multicentre, multivariable Cox regression, internal validation by bootstrapping, external validation
- Prognostic model development and validation
- Multicentre
- Multivariable Cox regression
- Internal validation by bootstrapping
- External validation
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Poor renal outcome, independent baseline factors
Hazard ratio (95% CI)P value
eGFR <30 mL/min/m²
3.82(2.15–6.78)
P < 0.001Chronicity index >2
2.01(1.18–3.43)
P = 0.01Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
| Outcome | HR (95% CI) | P value | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Primary outcome by risk categoryHigh riskvs Intermediate risk | 3.22 (1.64–6.34) | P = 0.001 | |
| Primary outcome by risk categoryIntermediate riskvs Low risk | 2.41 (1.35–4.30) | P = 0.003 | |
| 0.10.31310Hazard ratio (log scale) |
Three-tier model in external validation cohort, concordance index
- Concordance index
- 79% (95% CI 71% to 87%; p<0.001)
Original publication
Prediction model for renal outcomes in Latin American Mestizo patients with pure proliferative lupus nephritis. Lupus Sci Med. Published 6 October 2025. doi:10.
Composed by AI from the published abstract and checked against it. How Briefs are made →