Predicting Inflammatory Arthritis in At-Risk Persons: Development of Scores for Risk Stratification
Authors' conclusion
The simple score identified persons at low risk for IA who were less likely to need secondary care. The comprehensive score identified high-risk persons who could benefit from risk stratification and preventive measures.
Study context
- Population
- Persons with new musculoskeletal symptoms, positive anticitrullinated protein antibodies and no clinical synovitis, followed ≥48 weeks or until inflammatory arthritis (IA); Leeds, UK
- Participants
- 455 persons
- Exposure
- Simple score and comprehensive score for predicting IA
- Outcome
- Development of inflammatory arthritis (IA)
Methodological detailssingle-centre, risk score development, internal validation with bootstrapping, decision curve analysis
- Single-centre
- Risk score development
- Internal validation with bootstrapping
- Decision curve analysis
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Risk stratification for IA
False-negative rate (low risk)
False-positive rate (high risk)
| Outcome | Simple score | Comprehensive score |
|---|---|---|
| Low-risk participants | 249 | 336 |
| High-risk participants | 206 | 119 |
| High-risk developing IA within 1 year | — not stated in the abstract | 40% |
| High-risk developing IA within 5 years | — not stated in the abstract | 71% |
— not stated in the abstract
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
Incidence of IA in the cohort
- Developed IA (148 of 455)
- 32.5%
- Developed IA within 1 year (70 of 455)
- 15.4%
Original publication
Predicting Inflammatory Arthritis in At-Risk Persons: Development of Scores for Risk Stratification. Ann Intern Med. Published 1 August 2023. doi:10.
Composed by AI from the published abstract and checked against it. How Briefs are made →