Population-based epidemiological projections of rheumatoid arthritis in Germany until 2040
Authors' conclusion
Our research emphasizes a discernible trend: with an ageing society, improving treatment effectiveness, and declining all-cause mortality, we anticipate a rise in the absolute numbers of RA cases in Germany in the coming years.
Study context
- Population
- Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) cases in Germany; data from the German Central Institute for Statutory Health Insurance (report published 2017)
- Outcome
- Projected number of RA cases
- Follow-up
- 2040
Methodological detailspopulation-based projection, illness-death model, nine scenarios based on different incidence and mortality rates
- Population-based projection
- Illness-death model
- Nine scenarios based on different incidence and mortality rates
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Projected increase in RA cases by 2040 vs 2015
- Baseline scenario: increase in women with RA
- 417 000 cases
- Baseline scenario: increase in men with RA
- 179 000 cases
- Most favourable scenario (scenario 2, decreasing incidence): increase in total RA cases
- 284 000
- Most favourable scenario (scenario 2): relative increase 2015 to 2040
- 38%
- Least favourable scenario (scenario 9, increasing incidence): increase in total RA cases
- 1.16 million
- Least favourable scenario (scenario 9): relative increase 2015 to 2040
- 158%
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Original publication
Population-based epidemiological projections of rheumatoid arthritis in Germany until 2040. Scand J Rheumatol. Published 15 February 2024. doi:10.
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