Systemic sclerosis & Raynaud's
Nailfold capillaroscopy improves cardiovascular risk stratification in SSc: an adjustment of the SCORE2 algorithm
Authors' conclusion
Incorporating baseline NFC into SCORE2 improves CV stratification in patients with SSc, and may support more individualized CV prevention strategies in SSc.
Study context
- Population
- Patients with SSc, nailfold capillaroscopy (NFC) at diagnosismulticentre
- Participants
- 276 patients
- Exposure
- NFC-modified SCORE2 models vs original SCORE2/SCORE2-OP
- Outcome
- Major CV events (MCEs): discrimination, calibration and reclassification of original vs NFC-modified SCORE2 models
Methodological detailsmulticentre, bootstrap internal validation
- Multicentre
- Bootstrap internal validation
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Original SCORE2
0.687
AUC · 95% CI 0.574–0.801
NFC-findings model
0.784
AUC · 95% CI 0.674–0.894
NFC-pattern model
0.764
AUC · 95% CI 0.654–0.875
NFC-findings model vs Original SCORE2: P < 0.05 vs SCORE2 · NFC-pattern model vs Original SCORE2: P < 0.05 vs SCORE2
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
MCE incidence · median follow-up 9.5 years
- Patients with an MCE
- 45 (16.3%)
NFC variables independently associated with major CV events (MCEs) (multivariable)
- Late NFC pattern, HR
- 4.056 (P = 0.002)
- Avascular areas, HR
- 2.631 (P = 0.039)
- Microhaemorrhages (reduced risk), HR
- 0.345 (P = 0.017)
Categorical net reclassification index
- NFC-findings model
- 0.31
- NFC-pattern model
- 0.36
Original publication
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