Lupus & antiphospholipid syndrome
Modelling long-term outcomes for patients with systemic lupus erythematosus
Authors' conclusion
These comprehensive, longitudinal, predictive models show that disease activity and GC use are significant predictors of organ damage and mortality in a patient population with predominantly moderate to severe SLE.
Study context
- Population
- Patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) in the Toronto Lupus Cohort, 1997–2020, on standard of care (SoC) treatmentmean follow-up 10.5 years
- Participants
- 1,255 patients
- Outcome
- Predictors of disease activity, flare rate, GC use, organ damage and mortality beyond the first year of treatment
Methodological detailslongitudinal retrospective analysis of prospectively collected data, GLM and parametric accelerated failure time (AFT) survival models, bivariate then multivariate regression
- Longitudinal retrospective analysis of prospectively collected data
- GLM and parametric AFT survival models
- Bivariate then multivariate regression
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Moderate-to-severe disease activity (SLEDAI-2 K ≥ 6) at first visit
51 %
Median survival from study entry
∼35 years
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Original publication
Modelling long-term outcomes for patients with systemic lupus erythematosus. Semin Arthritis Rheum. Published 2 July 2024. doi:10.
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