Fibromyalgia & musculoskeletal pain

Machine learning identifies risk factors associated with long-term opioid use in fibromyalgia patients newly initiated on an opioid

RMD OpenPublished Retrospective cohort study

Authors' conclusion

High dose of initial opioid prescription, a history of self-harm, obesity, high deprivation, substance use disorder and age were associated with long-term opioid use.

Study context

Population
FM patients without prior cancer newly initiated on opioids, nationally representative UK primary care dataset (Clinical Research Practice Datalink)
Participants
28,552 patients
Outcome
Long-term opioid use
Methodological detailsmachine learning, logistic regression, random forest, Boruta feature selection
  • Machine learning
  • Logistic regression
  • Random forest
  • Boruta feature selection

Main finding

As reported in the abstract

Factors most strongly associated with long-term opioid use
Long-term opioid use
7369 (26%)
High initial opioid dose, aOR
31.96
High initial opioid dose, mean decrease accuracy (MDA)
135
History of self-harm, aOR
2.01
History of self-harm, MDA
44
Obesity, aOR
2.43
Obesity, MDA
36
High deprivation, aOR
2.00
High deprivation, MDA
31
Substance use disorder, aOR
2.08
Substance use disorder, MDA
25

Observational data: associations, not effects.

Original publication

Machine learning identifies risk factors associated with long-term opioid use in fibromyalgia patients newly initiated on an opioid. RMD Open. Published 20 May 2024. doi:10.1136/rmdopen-2024-004232

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