Hip Morphology–Based Osteoarthritis Risk Prediction Models: Development and External Validation Using Individual Participant Data From the World COACH Consortium
Authors' conclusion
In hips free of definite RHOA, our AUCs for the incident RHOA models showed good predictive performance in similar populations. However, the added predictive value of the morphology measurements was small, and model performance was heterogeneous in leave-one-cohort-out cross-validation.
Study context
- Population
- Hips without definite radiographic hip OA (radiographic hip osteoarthritis (RHOA)) at baseline, nine prospective cohorts of the World COACH consortium
- Participants
- 35,984 hips
- Comparison
- Generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) with vs without hip morphology measurements; hip morphology-based GLMMs vs random forest (RF) models
- Outcome
- Incident RHOA: hips without definite RHOA at baseline that developed definite RHOA
- Follow-up
- Four to eight years
Methodological detailsindividual participant data from nine prospective cohort studies, World COACH consortium, stratified cross-validation, leave-one-cohort-out cross-validation, GLMM and RF models
- Individual participant data from nine prospective cohort studies
- World COACH consortium
- Stratified cross-validation
- Leave-one-cohort-out cross-validation
- GLMM and RF models
Performance
As reported in the abstract
Discrimination for incident RHOA (AUC), stratified cross-validation
| Test or model | Value | AUC |
|---|---|---|
| GLMM with hip morphology | mean 0.80 ± 0.01 | 0.80 |
GLMM with hip morphology
Valuemean 0.80 ± 0.01
AUC0.80
Further findings
Incidence of RHOA · four to eight years
- Hips developing incident RHOA
- 4.7%
Generalizability, leave-one-cohort-out cross-validation
- Comparable discrimination (AUC range) and calibration for hip morphology-based GLMMs and RF models
- 0.56-0.88
Original publication
Hip Morphology–Based Osteoarthritis Risk Prediction Models: Development and External Validation Using Individual Participant Data From the World COACH Consortium. Arthritis Care Res (Hoboken). Published 14 January 2026. doi:10.
Composed by AI from the published abstract and checked against it. How Briefs are made →