Rheumatoid arthritis

EULAR /American College of Rheumatology Risk Stratification Criteria for Development of Rheumatoid Arthritis in the Risk Stage of Arthralgia

Arthritis RheumatolPublished Risk prediction model development and validation study

An erratum to this article was published (Arthritis Rheumatol, Nov 2026 ↗)

Authors' conclusion

EULAR/ACR risk stratification criteria have been developed for people with arthralgia in secondary care who are considered at risk for RA.

Study context

Population
Persons presenting with arthralgia considered at risk of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) (clinically suspect arthralgia and autoantibody-positive arthralgia)
Participants
2,293 persons10 arthralgia cohorts
Comparison
Clinical and serologic criteria vs Criteria with magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)
Outcome
Progression to clinically apparent inflammatory arthritis (IA)
Follow-up
1 year
Methodological detailsjoint EULAR/ACR expert committee, 10 arthralgia cohorts
  • Joint EULAR/ACR expert committee
  • 10 arthralgia cohorts

Performance

As reported in the abstract

Discrimination for IA development
Test or modelAUCSensitivity and specificity
Clinical and serologic criteria0.80 (95% CI 0.77-0.83)— not stated in the abstract
Criteria with MRI0.87 (95% CI 0.82-0.90)>75%

AUC

Clinical and serologic criteria0.80 (95% CI 0.77-0.83)
Criteria with MRI0.87 (95% CI 0.82-0.90)

Sensitivity and specificity

Clinical and serologic criteria— not stated in the abstract
Criteria with MRI>75%

— not stated in the abstract

Secondary outcomes

OutcomeCriteria with MRI
RA development (2010 EULAR/ACR criteria) · 1 year
AUC0.93 (95% CI 0.90-0.97)

Original publication

EULAR /American College of Rheumatology Risk Stratification Criteria for Development of Rheumatoid Arthritis in the Risk Stage of Arthralgia. Arthritis Rheumatol. Published 8 May 2025. doi:10.1002/art.43218

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