Rheumatoid arthritis

EULAR/American College of Rheumatology (ACR) risk stratification criteria for development of rheumatoid arthritis in the risk stage of arthralgia

Ann Rheum DisPublished Risk prediction model development and validation study

An erratum to this article was published (Ann Rheum Dis, Nov 2026 ↗)

Authors' conclusion

EULAR/ACR risk stratification criteria have been developed for people with arthralgia in secondary care who are considered at risk for RA.

Study context

Population
Persons presenting with arthralgia considered at risk of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) (clinically suspect arthralgia and autoantibody-positive arthralgia), 10 cohorts
Participants
2,293 persons10 arthralgia cohorts
Comparison
Clinical and serologic criteria without vs with ultrasound (US) or magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) subclinical joint inflammation variables
Outcome
Progression to clinically apparent inflammatory arthritis (IA)
Follow-up
1 year
Methodological detailsjoint EULAR/ACR expert committee, 10 arthralgia cohorts
  • Joint EULAR/ACR expert committee
  • 10 arthralgia cohorts

Performance

As reported in the abstract

Discrimination for IA development
Test or modelAUCSensitivity and specificity
Clinical + serologic0.80 (95% CI, 0.77-0.83)— not stated in the abstract
Clinical + serologic + MRI0.87 (95% CI, 0.82-0.90)>75%

AUC

Clinical + serologic0.80 (95% CI, 0.77-0.83)
Clinical + serologic + MRI0.87 (95% CI, 0.82-0.90)

Sensitivity and specificity

Clinical + serologic— not stated in the abstract
Clinical + serologic + MRI>75%

— not stated in the abstract

Parts of this Brief are withheld: the automatic checks could not confirm them against the abstract.

Original publication

EULAR/ACR risk stratification criteria for development of rheumatoid arthritis in the risk stage of arthralgia. Ann Rheum Dis. Published 8 May 2025. doi:10.1016/j.ard.2025.01.021

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