Lupus & antiphospholipid syndrome

Early systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) may follow a fast comorbidity/multimorbidity trajectory associated with flare burden and glucocorticoid exposure

RMD OpenPublished Inception cohort study

Authors' conclusion

Nearly half of patients with newly diagnosed SLE show accelerated comorbidity and multimorbidity burden, underscoring the need for clinical vigilance. Fast-accrual phenotypes are linked to flares and glucocorticoid exposure, two potentially modifiable features of early disease.

Study context

Population
Patients with SLE ≤2 years from diagnosis, 5-year monitoring of 140 comorbiditiesinception cohort
Participants
311 patients
Exposure
Fast vs slow incident-comorbidity trajectories
Outcome
Trajectories of incident comorbidities and multimorbidity profiles
Follow-up
5 years
Methodological detailsgrowth mixture modelling, tetrachoric exploratory factor analysis followed by clustering, penalised multivariable regression
  • Growth mixture modelling
  • Tetrachoric exploratory factor analysis followed by clustering
  • Penalised multivariable regression

Main finding

As reported in the abstract

OutcomeValues
ValuesSlow 55% · Fast 45% · Fast/low-to-moderate 51% · multimorbidity (≥2 conditions) 32.7% · Metabolic-psychiatric 31% · multimorbidity (≥2 conditions) 65.7% · Cardiopulmonary-musculoskeletal 18% · multimorbidity (≥2 conditions) 100%

Observational data: associations, not effects.

Further findings

Predictors of fast-comorbidity trajectory (first 24 months)

OR (95% CI)
Severe flares (≥20% of time)Independently predicted2.10 (1.09–4.04)
OutcomeOR (per 10 mg/day) (95% CI)
Predictors of fast-comorbidity trajectory (first 24 months)GC exposure · independently predicted1.06 (1.01–1.11)
OutcomeIRR
Organ damageFast vs Slow2.28-3.27
  • Organ damage: range across fast-accruing groups, especially metabolic-psychiatric and cardiopulmonary-musculoskeletal

Organ damage

Fast accruers attained less LLDAS/DORIS

Predictors of fast-comorbidity trajectory (first 24 months)

Flares more prominent in fast/low-to-moderate and metabolic-psychiatric phenotypes; GC use more prominent in cardiopulmonary-musculoskeletal phenotype

Safety

OutcomeIRR
Safety-related eventsFast vs Slow · range across fast-accruing groups1.89-3.36

Original publication

Early SLE may follow a fast comorbidity/multimorbidity trajectory associated with flare burden and glucocorticoid exposure. RMD Open. Published 23 September 2026. doi:10.1136/rmdopen-2026-007076

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