Vasculitis & polymyalgia rheumatica
Development and Validation of a Simulation Model for Treatment to Maintain Remission in Antineutrophil Cytoplasmic Antibody–Associated Vasculitis
Authors' conclusion
The AAV-Sim projected a range of clinical outcomes for different treatment approaches that were validated against published data.
Study context
- Population
- Simulated individuals with AAV initiating treatment to maintain remission
- Comparison
- Fixed vs tailored rituximab retreatment to maintain remission in AAV
- Outcome
- Agreement of AAV-Sim projections with MAINRITSAN2 outcomes (internal validation)
- Follow-up
- 28 months
Methodological detailsdevelopment and validation of a microsimulation model, internal validation against MAINRITSAN2 trial, external validation against MAINRITSAN1 trial and an observational study
- Development and validation of a microsimulation model
- Internal validation against MAINRITSAN2 trial
- External validation against MAINRITSAN1 trial and an observational study
Performance
As reported in the abstract
- Minor relapse, fixed: AAV-Sim 6.0% vs MAINRITSAN2 6.2%; Mean average percent error (MAPE)
- 3%
- Minor relapse, tailored: AAV-Sim 7.3% vs MAINRITSAN2 8.6%; MAPE
- 15%
- Major relapse, fixed: AAV-Sim 3.5% vs MAINRITSAN2 3.7%; MAPE
- 5%
- Major relapse, tailored: AAV-Sim 5.5% vs MAINRITSAN2 7.4%; MAPE
- 26%
- Severe infection, fixed: AAV-Sim 19.4% vs MAINRITSAN2 19.8%; MAPE
- 2%
- Severe infection, tailored: AAV-Sim 11.1% vs MAINRITSAN2 10.2%; MAPE
- 9%
- Relapse-free survival, fixed: AAV-Sim 84.8% vs MAINRITSAN2 86%; Coefficient of variation of root mean square error (CV-RMSE)
- 2.3%
- Relapse-free survival, tailored: AAV-Sim 82.3% vs MAINRITSAN2 84%; CV-RMSE
- 2.5%
Further findings
External validation (fixed rituximab retreatment vs MAINRITSAN1 trial and an observational study)
- Similar performance was observed in external validation
Original publication
Development and Validation of a Simulation Model for Treatment to Maintain Remission in Antineutrophil Cytoplasmic Antibody–Associated Vasculitis. Arthritis Care Res (Hoboken). Published 24 February 2023. doi:10.
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