Systemic sclerosis & Raynaud's
Baseline disease activity index and forced vital capacity predict clinically meaningful complications and mortality in systemic sclerosis
Main finding · Primary composite outcomeResult — go to the resultHazard ratio (multivariable) 2.21 95% CI 1.06–4.59Authors' conclusion
Baseline mDAI and forced vital capacity independently predict disease-related clinically meaningful complications and mortality in SSc.
Study context
- Population
- Patients diagnosed with SSc enrolled in a prospective SSc registry45 (19.7%) had primary outcome
- Participants
- 227 patients
- Exposure
- Active disease vs inactive disease at baseline
- Active diseasen = 42
- Outcome
- Composite of disease-related clinically meaningful complications (revised CRISS step 1 events:
- ILD progression
- Precapillary pulmonary hypertension
- Scleroderma renal crisis
- HF
- Severe digital ischaemia
- Severe gastrointestinal dysfunction) or all-cause mortality
- Follow-up
- Median 38 months
Methodological detailsprospective SSc registry, multivariable Cox proportional hazards models, sensitivity analyses with alternative end point definitions
- Prospective SSc registry
- Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models
- Sensitivity analyses with alternative end point definitions
Main finding
Primary composite outcome
Hazard ratio (multivariable)
2.21
95% CI 1.06–4.59
Active diseasevs Inactive disease
HR (multivariable) 2.21 (95% CI 1.06–4.59)
As reported in the abstract
- Patients with the primary outcome (overall)
- 45 (19.7%)
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
Lower FVC as predictor of primary composite outcome
- HR per % FVC (multivariable), 95% CI 0.96-0.99; lower FVC independently predicted adverse outcomes
- 0.98
Sensitivity analyses with alternative end point definitions
- Results consistent across sensitivity analyses
Original publication
Baseline disease activity index and forced vital capacity predict clinically meaningful complications and mortality in systemic sclerosis. Rheumatology (Oxford). Published 4 September 2026. doi:10.
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