Lupus & antiphospholipid syndrome
A data-driven, weighted flare score that accurately predicts organ damage in systemic lupus erythematosus
Authors' conclusion
We defined and validated a novel weighted SLE flare score that better predicts damage accrual and may support treat-to-target implementation and clinical trial design.
Study context
- Population
- Patients with active systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) requiring treatment at inclusion, multicentre longitudinal cohort (median follow-up 66 months)validation cohort n = 110
- Participants
- 354 patients
- Comparison
- Weighted flare score vs original SFI flare definition
- Outcome
- Subsequent organ damage (damage accrual)
- Follow-up
- 12 months
Methodological detailsscore derivation and validation, multicentre, longitudinal, Random Forests, bootstrap-validated mixed-effects models, independent validation cohort
- Score derivation and validation
- Multicentre
- Longitudinal
- Random Forests
- Bootstrap-validated mixed-effects models
- Independent validation cohort
Performance
As reported in the abstract
Prediction of subsequent damage by the weighted flare score
| Test or model | Brier score | AUC-ROC (validation cohort) |
|---|---|---|
| Weighted flare score | 0.07 | 0.893 |
| Original SFI | 0.816 |
Brier score
Weighted flare score0.07
Original SFI— not stated in the abstract
AUC-ROC (validation cohort)
Weighted flare score0.893
Original SFI0.816
- High-risk flares (score ≥ 3.5; 40% of all episodes): association with subsequent damage, IRR
- 2.49 (95% CI 1.51-4.10)
Further findings
12-month damage risk by SFI flare severity
- Mild/moderate SFI flares, IRR
- 1.42
- Severe SFI flares, IRR
- 1.54
Remission/low disease activity and flares
- Definitions of Remission in SLE (DORIS) and LLDAS correlated with lower risk of SFI-defined flares; only sustained DORIS (>50% of time) reduced high-risk flares
Parts of this Brief are withheld: the automatic checks could not confirm them against the abstract.
Original publication
A data-driven, weighted flare score that accurately predicts organ damage in systemic lupus erythematosus. Ann Rheum Dis. Published 3 July 2026. doi:10.
Composed by AI from the published abstract and checked against it. How Briefs are made →