Time trends in newly recorded diagnoses of 19 long term conditions before, during, and after the covid-19 pandemic: population based cohort study in England using OpenSAFELY
Authors' conclusion
Since the covid-19 pandemic, there have been fewer diagnoses than expected for conditions such as depression, asthma, COPD, and osteoporosis, in contrast with a rapid increase in diagnoses of chronic kidney disease since 2022. Unadjusted analyses stratified by ethnicity and socioeconomic status suggest differential patterns of recovery, particularly for individuals with dementia.
Study context
- Population
- Individuals registered with general practices in England contributing data to the OpenSAFELY-TPP platform; primary care and hospital admission data
- Participants
- 29,995,025 individuals
- Exposure
- Observed vs expected diagnosis rates after onset of covid-19 pandemic
- Outcome
- Temporal trends in age and sex standardised incident and prevalent diagnosis rates for 19 long term conditions; observed vs expected diagnosis rates after pandemic onset
- Follow-up
- 1 April 2016 to 30 November 2024
Methodological detailsseasonal autoregressive integrated moving-average models, age and sex standardised rates
- Seasonal autoregressive integrated moving-average models
- Age and sex standardised rates
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Cumulative difference in newly recorded diagnoses, observed vs expected · As of November 2024
- Depression: fewer diagnoses than expected (95% prediction interval (PI) 703 100 to 766 400)
- 734 800 (27.7%)
- Asthma: fewer diagnoses than expected (95% PI 137 500 to 168 300)
- 152 900 (16.4%)
- Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD): fewer diagnoses than expected (95% PI 81 400 to 98 900)
- 90 100 (15.8%)
- Psoriasis: fewer diagnoses than expected (95% PI 50 100 to 59 200)
- 54 700 (17.1%)
- Osteoporosis: fewer diagnoses than expected (95% PI 47 100 to 61 100)
- 54 100 (11.5%)
- CKD: increase above expected levels during pandemic recovery period
- 34.8%
- CKD: additional diagnoses (95% PI 333 500 to 384 500)
- 359 000
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
Dementia diagnosis rates by ethnicity and socioeconomic status (subgroups)
- After initial decrease, rose above pre-pandemic levels for white ethnicity and less deprived areas, but not for other ethnicities and more deprived areas
- Unadjusted subgroup analyses
Original publication
Time trends in newly recorded diagnoses of 19 long term conditions before, during, and after the covid-19 pandemic: population based cohort study in England using OpenSAFELY. BMJ. Published 21 January 2026. doi:10.
Composed by AI from the published abstract and checked against it. How Briefs are made →