The predictive accuracy of cardiovascular disease risk prediction tools in inflammatory arthritis and psoriasis: an observational validation study using the Clinical Practice Research Datalink
Authors' conclusion
CVD risk for individuals with RA, AS and psoriatic disease was generally less accurately predicted using each of the three CVD risk prediction tools than the reported accuracies in the original publications. Individuals with OA also had less accurate predictions, suggesting inflammation is not the sole reason for underperformance.
Study context
- Population
- Individuals with RA, psoriatic disease (PsA and psoriasis), AS or OA in Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) Aurum primary care records
- Comparison
- QRISK3 vs Framingham Risk Score (FRS) vs Reynolds Risk Score (RRS) for 10-year CVD risk prediction across RA, AS, PsA, psoriasis and OA
- Outcome
- Discrimination and calibration of QRISK3, FRS and RRS for 10-year CVD risk
- Follow-up
- 10 years
Methodological detailsCPRD Aurum primary care records, time-dependent AUC
- CPRD Aurum primary care records
- Time-dependent AUC
Performance
As reported in the abstract
Time-dependent AUC for QRISK3
| Test or model | AUC |
|---|---|
| RA | 0.752 (95% CI 0.734-0.777) |
| AS | 0.794 (95% CI 0.764-0.812) |
| PsA | 0.764 (95% CI 0.741-0.791) |
| Psoriasis | 0.815 (95% CI 0.789-0.835) |
| OA | 0.698 (95% CI 0.670-0.717) |
AUC
RA0.752 (95% CI 0.734-0.777)
AS0.794 (95% CI 0.764-0.812)
PsA0.764 (95% CI 0.741-0.791)
Psoriasis0.815 (95% CI 0.789-0.835)
OA0.698 (95% CI 0.670-0.717)
Further findings
Calibration
- FRS reasonably well calibrated for each condition but underpredicted risk in RA
- RRS tended to underpredict CVD risk
- QRISK3 overpredicted CVD risk, especially for the most high-risk individuals
Original publication
The predictive accuracy of cardiovascular disease risk prediction tools in inflammatory arthritis and psoriasis: an observational validation study using the Clinical Practice Research Datalink. Rheumatology (Oxford). Published 15 November 2023. doi:10.
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