Development of prediction models to select older RA patients with comorbidities for treatment with chronic low-dose glucocorticoids
Authors' conclusion
Baseline factors are not helpful in selecting elderly RA patients for treatment with low-dose prednisolone given their low power to predict the chance of benefit or harm.
Study context
- Population
- RA patients ≥65 years of age with comorbidities
- Participants
- 451 patients
- Comparison
- Prednisolone 5 mg/day vs placebo for 2 years
- Primary endpoint
- Performance of eight prediction models for harm (≥1 AESI; number of adverse events of special interest (AESIs) per year) and benefit (early clinical response/disease activity; lack of joint damage progression)
Methodological detailsprediction model development, internal validation with bootstrapping, linear and logistic multivariable regression with backward selection
- Prediction model development
- Internal validation with bootstrapping
- Linear and logistic multivariable regression with backward selection
Primary result
As reported in the abstract
Prediction model performance
Explained variance
12-15%
AUC
0.67-0.69
Original publication
Development of prediction models to select older RA patients with comorbidities for treatment with chronic low-dose glucocorticoids. Rheumatology (Oxford). Published 27 September 2022. doi:10.
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