Development and External Validation of a Multivariable Predictive Model for Progression to Difficult‐to‐Treat Rheumatoid Arthritis in Biologic‐Experienced Patients
Authors' conclusion
Our model demonstrated moderate discrimination and calibration, highlighting the challenge in accurately predicting D2T-RA outcomes.
Study context
- Population
- Patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) treated with b/tsDMARDs, from two large independent observational cohortstwo cohorts
- Participants
- 700 vs 2,070
- Comparison
- Derivation vs Validation
- Derivationn = 700
- Validationn = 2,070
- Outcome
- Progression to D2T-RA (EULAR 2021 criteria)
Methodological detailstwo independent observational cohorts, random survival forests
- Two independent observational cohorts
- Random survival forests
Performance
As reported in the abstract
Discrimination for D2T-RA (C-index)
| Test or model | Value | C-index |
|---|---|---|
| Derivation | 16% | 0.643 (95% CI 0.585-0.698) |
| Validation | 28% | 0.620 (95% CI 0.596-0.643) |
Value
Derivation16%
Validation28%
C-index
Derivation0.643 (95% CI 0.585-0.698)
Validation0.620 (95% CI 0.596-0.643)
Original publication
Development and External Validation of a Multivariable Predictive Model for Progression to Difficult‐to‐Treat Rheumatoid Arthritis in Biologic‐Experienced Patients. Arthritis Care Res (Hoboken). Published 16 October 2025. doi:10.
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