A Metabolomic Signature Predicts Gout Flare Clinical Outcome Associated With Colchicine Prophylaxis
Main finding · Gout flare activity by four-metabolite risk scoreResult — go to the resultAdjusted hazard ratio 3.21 95% CI 2.24–4.59Authors' conclusion
Metabolomic profile-defined inflammation status was associated with gout flare outcomes in ULT initiators receiving colchicine prophylaxis.
Study context
- Population
- Patients with gout initiating treat-to-target urate-lowering therapy (ULT) plus colchicine prophylaxis
- Participants
- 409 patients
- Exposure
- Colchicine response vs Colchicine nonresponse
- Outcome
- Gout flare activity (≥1 flare) on colchicine prophylaxis
- Follow-up
- Six months after first colchicine dose
Methodological detailsmulticentre, untargeted metabolomics, Cox regression, machine learning
- Multicentre
- Untargeted metabolomics
- Cox regression
- Machine learning
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Gout flare activity by four-metabolite risk score · six months
Adjusted hazard ratio
3.21
95% CI 2.24–4.59
Four-metabolite risk score
aHR 3.21 (95% CI 2.24–4.59)
- Participants with at least one flare
- 36.9%
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
AUC
Discovery cohort
0.771(95% CI 0.713-0.828)
Validation cohort
0.724(95% CI 0.611-0.837)
Inflammation-related metabolites
- Many inflammation-related metabolites differentially abundant in the recurrent flare group and correlated with recurrent flare risk
Original publication
A Metabolomic Signature Predicts Gout Flare Clinical Outcome Associated With Colchicine Prophylaxis. Arthritis Rheumatol. Published 13 March 2026. doi:10.
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